Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $103,135$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,840.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(100,840.5\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,486$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(777 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,365.4}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(6,365.4\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,905$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $133,721$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{134,168.0}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 28.7)}}\) (asimptote \(134,168.0\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,641$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(350 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,852.9}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,852.9\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $47,096$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,381$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,139.2}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(16,139.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $240$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(33.9 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{239.4}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 24.6)}}\) (asimptote \(239.4\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,268$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,240$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(169 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,777.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 63.8)}}\) (asimptote \(19,777.0\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $165$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(3.43 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{369.8}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 51.1)}}\) (asimptote \(369.8\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,503$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $889$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(147 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{868.5}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(868.5\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $15$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(5.79 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 11.9)}}\) (asimptote \(14.8\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $474$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,567$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(33.3 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,842.0}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 91.8)}}\) (asimptote \(35,842.0\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $44$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.89 \times 10^{0.042t}\) (doubling rate \(7.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56.6}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 26.9)}}\) (asimptote \(56.6\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,142$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $33,731$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(488 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,675.1}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 52.3)}}\) (asimptote \(52,675.1\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $219$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(25.2 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{271.2}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 29.1)}}\) (asimptote \(271.2\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $25,714$ on 2020-05-07
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,343$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,524.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 32.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,524.1\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $685$ on 2020-05-07
Best fit exponential: \(63.7 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{697.1}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(697.1\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,040$ on 2020-05-07