Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $103,135$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,840.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(100,840.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,486$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(777 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,365.4}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(6,365.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,905$ on 2020-05-07

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $133,721$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{134,168.0}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 28.7)}}\) (asimptote \(134,168.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,641$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(350 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,852.9}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,852.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $47,096$ on 2020-05-07

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,381$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,139.2}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(16,139.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $240$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(33.9 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{239.4}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 24.6)}}\) (asimptote \(239.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,268$ on 2020-05-07

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,240$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(169 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,777.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 63.8)}}\) (asimptote \(19,777.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $165$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(3.43 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{369.8}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 51.1)}}\) (asimptote \(369.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,503$ on 2020-05-07

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $889$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(147 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{868.5}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(868.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(5.79 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 11.9)}}\) (asimptote \(14.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $474$ on 2020-05-07

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,567$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(33.3 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,842.0}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 91.8)}}\) (asimptote \(35,842.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $44$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.89 \times 10^{0.042t}\) (doubling rate \(7.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56.6}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 26.9)}}\) (asimptote \(56.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,142$ on 2020-05-07

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $33,731$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(488 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,675.1}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 52.3)}}\) (asimptote \(52,675.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $219$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(25.2 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{271.2}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 29.1)}}\) (asimptote \(271.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25,714$ on 2020-05-07

Philippines⮸

Population $109,581,078$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,343$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,524.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 32.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,524.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $685$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(63.7 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{697.1}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(697.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,040$ on 2020-05-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Thailand recovered 89%
Korea, South recovered 86%
Uzbekistan recovered 54%
Israel recovered 46%
Turkey recovered 42%
Malaysia recovered 39%
Japan recovered 16%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,975$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(4.82 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(99.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,386.5}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,386.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,319.5}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 27.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,319.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $361$ on 2020-05-07

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,992$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(863 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,914.5}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 19.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,914.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $55$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(21.8 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54.2}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 10.2)}}\) (asimptote \(54.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $165$ on 2020-05-07

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,822$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(4.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,358.5}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 15.1)}}\) (asimptote \(10,358.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $256$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(54.5 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{259.3}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 32.7)}}\) (asimptote \(259.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,082$ on 2020-05-07

Uzbekistan⮸

Population $33,469,203$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,298$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(282 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,211.8}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 25.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,211.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-07

Best fit exponential: \(3.85 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 10.5)}}\) (asimptote \(12.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $632$ on 2020-05-07